Replacement demand

Who leaves decides the shortage

August 2026

7 min read

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 34 of the 93 scored Dutch occupation groups were tight and 56 very tight; 2 were average and 1 was loose. For 32 of the 112 groups, ROA forecasts further tightening to 2030. What sets those groups apart is rarely job growth and usually departure: on average 2.8% of workers must be replaced each year, among butchers 8.1%, the highest of all occupation groups, and among advisers in marketing, public relations, and sales 1.1%. Butchers see almost no job growth and stay tight anyway; the advisers ease slightly. Representatives and buyers shrink by 1,900 workers and still stay on the tight side. The three scored ICT groups, together 518,400 workers, were all very tight at the end of 2024 and all ease slightly to 2030; for ICT user support that was already visible in the third quarter of 2025. For five technical occupation groups, the forecast easing was not yet visible in the Spanningsindicator in that same quarter.

Forty-four years of work

September 2026

5 min read

Nowhere in the EU does working life last as long as in the Netherlands: 44.0 expected years in 2025, against 43.4 in Sweden and 37.5 on average in the EU. More striking is the pace at which it happened. In 2000 the Netherlands stood at 35.5 years; 8.5 years were added in 25 years, driven by women's labour participation and later retirement. For replacement demand this is the softest cushion there is: people keep working longer. But the cushion is largely used up, because a working life can hardly be stretched much further.

Ageing without a benefit wave

September 2026

12 min read

In November 2025 the Netherlands counted 55.6 benefit recipients for every 100 people whose main income is work: 39.6 on a pension and 16.0 on a social security benefit. In 2014 the figure was 63.6. Since 2001 the country gained 940,000 pensioners and their share of the population rose from 15.1% to 18.6%, but the number of workers grew faster, from 7.14 million in 2014 to 8.51 million in 2025. That growth is largely older people. Of those aged 60 to 65, 36.9% worked in 2010 and 69.5% in 2025. Of those aged 65 to 70 the share went from 12.1% to 29.5%. The share of 55 to 65 year olds living mainly on a pension fell from 18.9% in 2006 to 2.9% in 2025, while the state pension age rose from 65 to 67. The cabinet counted on still more supply from tying the pension age one-to-one to life expectancy, then dropped that plan on 26 May 2026. What remains, a stricter entry test for unemployment benefit, would exclude about 12% of new claimants according to UWV, half of them on temporary contracts.

One in four clerks is gone

September 2026

10 min read

The Netherlands employed 215,000 administrative clerks in 2025 against 283,000 in 2013, a fall of 24.0% over a period in which the employed labour force grew 16.6%. Secretarial staff went from 64,000 to 35,000, down 45.3%. Administrative personnel as a whole fell from 829,000 to 801,000 and its share of all jobs from 9.8% to 8.1%. At the top of the same occupational class the opposite happened: business and administration specialists went from 357,000 to 707,000, a doubling, with accountants, management consultants, policy advisers, and HR specialists each growing around 100%. New vacancies for administrative personnel fell from 158,200 in 2022 to 114,500 in 2025, 27.6% fewer, against 8.6% fewer for all occupations. Those still in clerical work are old: 31.0% are 55 or over, against 23.3% of all workers. That makes a shrinking occupation a hiring problem for years to come.