Occupations

Who leaves decides the shortage

August 2026

7 min read

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 34 of the 93 scored Dutch occupation groups were tight and 56 very tight; 2 were average and 1 was loose. For 32 of the 112 groups, ROA forecasts further tightening to 2030. What sets those groups apart is rarely job growth and usually departure: on average 2.8% of workers must be replaced each year, among butchers 8.1%, the highest of all occupation groups, and among advisers in marketing, public relations, and sales 1.1%. Butchers see almost no job growth and stay tight anyway; the advisers ease slightly. Representatives and buyers shrink by 1,900 workers and still stay on the tight side. The three scored ICT groups, together 518,400 workers, were all very tight at the end of 2024 and all ease slightly to 2030; for ICT user support that was already visible in the third quarter of 2025. For five technical occupation groups, the forecast easing was not yet visible in the Spanningsindicator in that same quarter.

The shortage has a job title

August 2026

5 min read

When Dutch employers were asked in autumn 2025 to name their hardest vacancy, 27% named a technical occupation: fitters, welders, CNC operators, machinists, and engineers. Care and welfare professions followed at 13%. In construction, 71% of vacancies arising over the past 12 months were hard to fill; in manufacturing, 53%. The vacancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at 7.0% in construction, 5.0% in professional and technical services, and 4.8% in ICT, against 3.9% for the economy as a whole. The overall market is loosening, the share of hard-to-fill vacancies fell from 53% in 2023 to 45% in 2025, but that is largely an office-job story. In Germany, the ICT vacancy rate dropped to 2.5%. The Dutch technical shortage is not a European inevitability. It is a Dutch profile.

One in four clerks is gone

September 2026

10 min read

The Netherlands employed 215,000 administrative clerks in 2025 against 283,000 in 2013, a fall of 24.0% over a period in which the employed labour force grew 16.6%. Secretarial staff went from 64,000 to 35,000, down 45.3%. Administrative personnel as a whole fell from 829,000 to 801,000 and its share of all jobs from 9.8% to 8.1%. At the top of the same occupational class the opposite happened: business and administration specialists went from 357,000 to 707,000, a doubling, with accountants, management consultants, policy advisers, and HR specialists each growing around 100%. New vacancies for administrative personnel fell from 158,200 in 2022 to 114,500 in 2025, 27.6% fewer, against 8.6% fewer for all occupations. Those still in clerical work are old: 31.0% are 55 or over, against 23.3% of all workers. That makes a shrinking occupation a hiring problem for years to come.