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IPMERC
IPMERC Futures

Construction trades, Netherlands.

Persistently tight / 2026-Q3

The market sits well above its benchmark and is not moving. It was this tight three years ago.

Confidence C13 signals, 2 measured here7 papers3 sourcesthis quarternewest release 1 September 2026

Enough weight to report a direction, but thin. Treat it as an indication.

The five readings

Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.

Demandmovement -0.04level +1.00weight 1.03
Supplymovement +0.01level -0.36weight 0.64
Frictionmovement -level +0.14weight 0.08
Costmovement +0.90level +0.39weight 0.22
Structuremovement +0.38level +0.75weight 1.48

Every signal, with its weight

Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.

Demand

construction vacancy rate 7.5% to 7.4%, against 2.7% in the EUEurostat, 2025-Q21.00 × 0.56 × 1.00 = 0.561
Dutch all-sector vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.1%, against 1.9% in the EUEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356
vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.2% across the whole economyEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.112

Supply

labour reserve 9.3% against registered unemployment of 3.2%Eurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.283
unused part-time hours 4.0% of the extended labour force, against 2.3% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.141
372,000 part-timers wanting more hours against 297,000 unemployedEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.071
part-timers want 2 to 2.5 extra hours a week, worth 3 to 4% of labour volumeDNB, 2024, borrowed0.80 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.143

Friction

416,000 open vacancies against 366,000 unemployedDNB, 2023-Q3, borrowed0.80 × 0.25 × 0.40 = 0.080

Cost

labour cost index 113.1 to 143.1, a rise of 26.5% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224

Structure

75,000 full-time workers needed by 2029, of which about 25,000 must be career switchersEIB, 20290.70 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.700
1.87m of 9.42m Dutch workers are 55 to 64, or 19.9%, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361
labour force growth of about 100,000 a year falls to a standstill after 2030DNB, 2040, borrowed0.80 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.320
29% of workers on permanent contracts trained, against 57% on flexible contractsDNB, 2022, borrowed0.80 × 0.59 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.095

How this cell has moved

Oldest first. A reading that holds quarter after quarter says more than a snapshot does.

Quarters marked reconstructed were scored afterwards, on the figures published about that quarter. They are not what this model said at the time, because it was not running then. Projections take no part in them.

2025-Q2Persistently tightreconstructedC
2025-Q3Persistently tightreconstructedC
2025-Q4Persistently tightreconstructedC
2026-Q1Persistently tightreconstructedC
2026-Q2Persistently tightreconstructedC
2026-Q3Persistently tightC

Each metric, by quarter

The midline is the benchmark. Above it is tighter than the benchmark. A break in the line is a quarter with no reading, not a zero.

Demand+1.00
Supply-0.36
Friction+0.14
Cost+0.39
Structure+0.75

What is missing

All five readings have evidence behind them.

Labour cost index, nominal, quarterly has been published to 2026-Q2, on 19 August 2026. The newest figure accepted here runs to 2025-Q2. That release is waiting to be read.

Back to the full outlook

How this is computed