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Enough weight to report a direction, but thin. Treat it as an indication.
The five readings
Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.
Demandmovement -0.49level +0.39weight 1.38
Supplymovement +0.01level -0.36weight 0.64
Frictionmovement -level +0.14weight 0.08
Costmovement +0.47level +0.39weight 0.58
Structuremovement +1.00level +0.18weight 0.78
Every signal, with its weight
Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.
Demand
specialist business services vacancy rate 6.6% to 5.3%Eurostat, 2025-Q21.00 × 0.56 × 1.00 = 0.561
Dutch all-sector vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.1%, against 1.9% in the EUEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356
close to half of business services firms reported a labour shortageING, 2025-Q40.50 × 0.71 × 1.00 = 0.354
vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.2% across the whole economyEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.112
Supply
labour reserve 9.3% against registered unemployment of 3.2%Eurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.283
unused part-time hours 4.0% of the extended labour force, against 2.3% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.141
372,000 part-timers wanting more hours against 297,000 unemployedEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.071
part-timers want 2 to 2.5 extra hours a week, worth 3 to 4% of labour volumeDNB, 2024, borrowed0.80 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.143
Friction
416,000 open vacancies against 366,000 unemployedDNB, 2023-Q3, borrowed0.80 × 0.25 × 0.40 = 0.080
Cost
cleaning rates up 7.5% on a year earlier, staffing, accountancy and law close to 5%ING, 20250.50 × 0.71 × 1.00 = 0.354
labour cost index 113.1 to 143.1, a rise of 26.5% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224
Structure
1.87m of 9.42m Dutch workers are 55 to 64, or 19.9%, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361
labour force growth of about 100,000 a year falls to a standstill after 2030DNB, 2040, borrowed0.80 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.320
29% of workers on permanent contracts trained, against 57% on flexible contractsDNB, 2022, borrowed0.80 × 0.59 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.095
How this cell has moved
Oldest first. A reading that holds quarter after quarter says more than a snapshot does.
Quarters marked reconstructed were scored afterwards, on the figures published about that quarter. They are not what this model said at the time, because it was not running then. Projections take no part in them.
2025-Q2EasingreconstructedC
2025-Q3EasingreconstructedC
2025-Q4Easing from a tight basereconstructedC
2026-Q1Easing from a tight basereconstructedC
2026-Q2Easing from a tight basereconstructedB
2026-Q3Easing from a tight baseC
Each metric, by quarter
The midline is the benchmark. Above it is tighter than the benchmark. A break in the line is a quarter with no reading, not a zero.
Demand+0.39
Supply-0.36
Friction+0.14
Cost+0.39
Structure+0.18
What is missing
All five readings have evidence behind them.
Labour cost index, nominal, quarterly has been published to 2026-Q2, on 19 August 2026. The newest figure accepted here runs to 2025-Q2. That release is waiting to be read.