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IPMERC Futures

ICT, all roles, Germany.

2026-Q3

Nothing published so far says whether hiring here is getting harder or easier.

Confidence none3 signals, 1 measured here3 papers1 sources3 quarters backnewest release 1 September 2026

Below the floor. No direction is shown.

The five readings

Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.

Frictionmovement -level +0.27weight 0.45
Costmovement +0.79level -weight 0.22
Structuremovement -level +0.18weight 0.36

Every signal, with its weight

Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.

Friction

72% of German recruiting firms left an ICT vacancy unfilledEurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 = 0.445

Cost

labour costs up 23.1% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224

Structure

24% of German workers are 55 to 64, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361

How this cell has moved

Oldest first. A reading that holds quarter after quarter says more than a snapshot does.

Quarters marked reconstructed were scored afterwards, on the figures published about that quarter. They are not what this model said at the time, because it was not running then. Projections take no part in them.

2024-Q4SteadyreconstructedC
2025-Q1SteadyreconstructedC
2025-Q2SteadyreconstructedC
2025-Q3SteadyreconstructedC
2025-Q4SteadyreconstructedC
2026-Q3Not enough evidence-

Each metric, by quarter

The midline is the benchmark. Above it is tighter than the benchmark. A break in the line is a quarter with no reading, not a zero.

Friction+0.27
Structure+0.18

What is missing

No published figure touches demand, supply for this market.

Labour cost index, nominal, quarterly has been published to 2026-Q2, on 19 August 2026. The newest figure accepted here runs to 2025-Q2. That release is waiting to be read.

Back to the full outlook

How this is computed